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Poor Year for United States Drug Market

The pharmaceutical market will register a slump first time in 5 decades. This portentous sign is supposedly after taking into consideration of current financial recession, according to a research firm from US.

IMS has lowered its prediction for pharmaceutical sales by some 8.5 percent, held only 6 months ago. Many have curbed the desire to visit doctors and lesser number of them is looking for cure of diabetes, high blood pressure, insomnia and other chronic diseases.

Already, the first quarter has shown tangible infirmity in pharmaceutical sales. This trend will compel drug makers to bring quick alterations. These might come in form of expansion of emerging markets and development of new drugs.

Mr. Murray Aitken, IMS Health Care Senior VP feels that it has become outright improbable for a new product to emerge in the therapy area and shoot to the top unless it’s a highly imaginative product with a forceful clinical profile. IMS believes that global sale of drugs will spiral down to 720 billion USD from its prediction of 820 billion USD. Keeping away the margin for currency fluctuation, the prediction implies a market growth between 2.5 to 3.5 percent for the year 2009. This again is in departure from past prediction of 4.5 to 5.5 percent growth.

In the event of reversal of present economic trend combined with alteration in major health-care policies, the demand for drugs could shoot up. Emerging markets are poised to register better growth; IMS has forecast growth of about 13 to 16 percent for as many as seven countries. The list includes China. China is expected to run up three rungs and become the third largest market for drugs by the year 2011.

IMS is expecting 50 to 60 fresh, innovative drugs in the coming two years. Roughly 6-10 highly potential drugs are due to be announced this year and next. This includes prasugrel anti-clotting drug in the U.S. from Eli Lilly & Co. and Daiichi-Sankyo Co.; Novo Nordisk AS’s liraglutide diabetes drugs; Johnson & Johnson’s ustekinumab anti-inflammatory drug in the U.S; Amgen Inc.’s denosumab osteoporosis drug and Novartis’s meningitis vaccine Menveo. A few of these drugs are already approved and stamped outside the American periphery.